football

Annual % of winning games where chosen by odds

College Football stats from thepredictiontracker.com.

The odds placed on sports games indicates the favorite to win.  The chart above is a summary of college games played in a year.  It shows the percentage of games played at a particular odds where the line correctly predicted the game winners.  The lower the odds, the less confidence that the line will predict the winner.  When you look at a game with odds of 1, that game is close to a coin toss to predict the winner.  75% like an odds of 13 will give a probability based on past games to win 3 out of 4 games.  This is all on a small sample, not millions of games – so it must be taken as a guide not a short term fact.  Sports games are so often won or lost on a single play, but if you have to make a decision on which team to support, typically, the higher the odds, the better chance you have of being right.

This is a comparison of winning percentages for games played at different updated-line odds.  The interesting areas are odds of 6, 7, and 8.5 where the percent of games won is consistent across the years.  The other question I have is if there is a trend at lower odds where win rates below 60% seem to be growing into odds of 3.5 and higher.

What is going on with the .5 odds – like 5.5, 6.5, etc?  The win rate is often less for the .5 odds than their surrounding full number odds like 5,6, 10?  Not sure why…

To me, it seems that pro football has more low odds games than say, a decade ago.  Identifying the game winner in advance is much more difficult and upsets more common.  I am hoping that trend does not extend into College football since I believe the unpredictability of NFL football is reducing interest in the pro sport.

Pardon the simplistic post – am in the learning stage of how to get info into WordPress.

 

 

 

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