This week I only found eight games I would be comfortable placing pretend money at risk – much less real money.   There are a lot of balanced contests which make for exciting games, but the payouts don’t justify the risk.  Betting on a ‘flyer’ will bite you in the long run.  I placed the $40 allocated to this week on two RIF chains that are fairly balanced, with one higher risk game on each chain.  If I were pressed to add two more chains, I would have loaded them with the games rejected for being toss ups.  The philosophy of putting the main risk on the first game is continued this week with decent payouts starting after that first make or break game in each chain.  We will see!

week9 5dimes

 

It was not planned, but the maximum possible profit percent came out the same as last week.  I changed the order of the games – puttering with options and I like the payout sequence progressions – a matter of personal preference.  This is being posted on Monday 10/23 – early in the week, but I wanted to lock in moneylines – they seem to go up closer to game time.

Results – 10/29/2017

OK, worked out much better than previous weeks – the high risk by putting maximum amount on first game in each RIF chain worked – this week.  Turned a profit for the effort winning 7 of 8 games played.  The one lost had a spread line of 3 so was in the 55% win average – not a surprise since this week I lost 66% of games with a spread line of 4 or less.  If you look at my WordPress tab labeled Green Frog, you will see the trend over 3 years of past history shows games below 4 to be really a coin toss.

week9 5dimes final

The chain does work, but the high risk on the first game puts it similar to risks for parlay plays – imo.  I do like that I am playing only with profit after the first game win.

week9 5dimes straignt

The Captain over at Pi-Rate was questioning whether a simple bet per game option would do just as well as a RIF chain.  In this particular week, it did not do as well, but if an early game in a RIF failed, the following games you picked right would not count – that may put the advantage toward straight bets.  I could have improved the profit in the bet per game scenario by balancing the risked amount more in line with the moneyline payout.  Simply moving $2 off the high risk game to the larger moneylines would have generated another $2.50 profit – by lowering the loss on the high risk game.  Still, 13% profit is grand!  I will carry this idea on for another week just for curiosity – may be a better choice than RIF long term.

 

 

 

 

 

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